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Hurricane Bud Graphics
2018-06-12 22:52:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Jun 2018 20:52:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Jun 2018 21:27:13 GMT
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Hurricane Bud Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-06-12 22:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122051 TCDEP3 Hurricane Bud Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 Bud has slowed down since the previous advisory and is now crawling northwestward at 325/03 kt. No changes were required to the previous forecast track due to the recent NHC model guidance remaining tightly packed and in excellent agreement on both track and forward speed. Bud should turn toward the north-northwest later this evening and continue that motion for another 24 h or so. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn northward at a slightly faster forward speed on Thursday and Friday, passing over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula as a weakening tropical storm by Friday morning. By Saturday, Bud or its remnants are forecast to move inland over western mainland Mexico, and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Sunday. Although it is unlikely that the low-level circulation will be able to make it across the high coastal mountains of western Mexico, a 120-h forecast point has been provided for continuity purposes, and would be more representative of the location of Bud's remnant mid-level circulation. The new NHC forecast track is basically on top of the previous advisory track, and remains close to a blend of the various consensus models. Bud's slow motion over already marginally warm SSTs and near zero upper-ocean heat content is likely producing significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone, a negative factor that is forecast to worsen over the next 48 hours. The result should be continued rapid weakening right up until the time Bud approaches southern Baja California on Thursday. Expected land interaction thereafter will further weaken the cyclone, and Bud could become a remnant low or even dissipate before it reaches mainland Mexico in 96 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. Based on the forecast track and 34-kt wind radii, a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur on the next advisory package. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 18.6N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 19.1N 108.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 20.8N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 22.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 25.2N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 29.3N 110.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1800Z 35.0N 110.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-12 22:50:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD WEAKENING RAPIDLY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 the center of Bud was located near 18.6, -108.6 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Bud Public Advisory Number 13
2018-06-12 22:50:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 122050 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Bud Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018 ...BUD WEAKENING RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 108.6W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in southern Baja California Sur, Mexico, should monitor the progress of Bud. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Bud was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 108.6 West. Bud is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow north-northwestward motion is expected later tonight through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud will be approaching Baja California Sur on Thursday, and be near or over Baja California Sur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Bud is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Bud is forecast to weaken below hurricane intensity by Wednesday night. However, Bud is still expected to be a tropical storm when it approaches Baja California Sur on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across much of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through Thursday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days and will begin to affect the southern Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Bud Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-06-12 22:50:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 122050 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032018 2100 UTC TUE JUN 12 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 12(16) 21(37) 18(55) X(55) X(55) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 17(29) 21(50) X(50) X(50) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 28(39) 1(40) X(40) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) X(16) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 3(14) X(14) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 27 55(82) 7(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 20N 110W 50 1 22(23) 16(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 110W 64 X 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 12(15) 5(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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