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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 17A
2018-06-14 01:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132336 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 600 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...BUD MOVING CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 109.0W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 109.0 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster northward motion is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur late Thursday and move over the Gulf of California by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Although slow weakening is expected during the next day or so, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Thursday evening. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-14 01:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 23:35:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 21:25:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Graphics
2018-06-13 22:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 20:35:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Jun 2018 21:25:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-06-13 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 300 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 Bud has continued to steadily weaken as deep convection has been non-existent in the inner-core region for more than 6 hours now. A couple of recent ASCAT overpasses indicated a few 42-kt wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant. Even allowing for some undersampling of the small wind field, those data only support winds of about 45 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. Bud has been moving in a steadier north-northwestward motion of about 345/05 kt over the past 6 h. The blocking ridge to the north of Bud is beginning to weaken and shift slowly eastward. This trend is expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-/upper-level trough approaches Baja California from the northwest. Southerly flow between the ridge and the approaching trough will gradually increase and induce a northward component of motion by Thursday, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northeast and northeast on Friday. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous few forecast tracks, so significant changes were required on this advisory package. Bud will be moving over sub-26C SSTs within the next 6 hours or so, which will act to inhibit inner-core convection from redeveloping, resulting in a slow spin down and weakening of the cyclone. However, there will be enough available instability in outer portion of the circulation to help maintain a convective banding structure, which should be sufficient to maintain Bud as a tropical storm until it reaches Baja California in about 36 hours. After that, interaction with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should promote more significant weakening, and Bud is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate shortly after 72 hours when the system is inland over northwestern Mexico. Bud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest over the weekend, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.9N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 20.7N 109.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 21.8N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER SRN BAJA 48H 15/1800Z 25.6N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 16/1800Z 31.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Bud (EP3/EP032018)
2018-06-13 22:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BUD WEAKENS FURTHER WHILE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 the center of Bud was located near 19.9, -108.9 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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