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Tropical Storm Daniel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-06-24 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 242033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 2100 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) X(25) 1(26) X(26) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-06-24 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 242032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 2100 UTC SUN JUN 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.4W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.4W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.1N 117.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.2N 118.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 119.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.2N 121.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Daniel Graphics
2018-06-24 16:44:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Jun 2018 14:44:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Jun 2018 14:44:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-06-24 16:42:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241441 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018 The cyclone has continued to maintain a small mass of deep convection near the center during the past several hours, with the low-level center under the convection. In addition, recent microwave overpasses indicate that the system has developed a small inner core. Based on this and various satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Daniel. The initial motion is now 350/9. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side of a mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-24 hours, causing the system to move over cooler water and weaken. The resulting more shallow cyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed by a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded in the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is again an update of the previous track. The forecast track brings the center of Daniel over sea surface temperatures below 26C in less than 24 h, and this should cause weakening even though the storm is in a light shear environment. Thus, the intensity forecast continues the scenario of the previous forecast by indicating a little more strengthening, followed by steady weakening over the cooler water. The latest dynamical models are consistent in showing the system dissipating faster than previously forecast, and the new forecast follows that trend by showing dissipation after 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 16.0N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 17.2N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Daniel (EP5/EP052018)
2018-06-24 16:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DANIEL... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 the center of Daniel was located near 16.0, -115.9 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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