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Tropical Depression Daniel Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-06-26 10:33:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260833 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018 The last bit of convection occurred around 0600 UTC, consisting of cloud tops to -30C to -35C. This allowed TAFB to provide a Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimate of 30 kt. This was enough to still classify Daniel as a tropical depression. Since that time, however, the convection has eroded significantly and cloud tops have warmed to only around -15C. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days as the small cyclone moves over SSTs less than 24C and also ingests more stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds. Degeneration into a remnant low pressure is expected later this morning, with dissipation is forecast by 48 hours. The next advisory could easily be the last forecast required for this system. The shallow cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 7-8 kt. Now that Daniel has become embedded within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, the cyclone and its remnants should move westward at around 10 kt until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The official foreast track is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and closely follows the consensus track models HCCA and TCVE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.9N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/0600Z 20.1N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 20.0N 124.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Daniel Graphics
2018-06-26 10:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Jun 2018 08:32:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Jun 2018 08:32:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Daniel Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-06-26 10:32:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 26 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 260832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052018 0900 UTC TUE JUN 26 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Daniel (EP5/EP052018)
2018-06-26 10:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DANIEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 the center of Daniel was located near 19.9, -119.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Daniel Public Advisory Number 10
2018-06-26 10:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 260832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Daniel Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052018 200 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018 ...DANIEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 119.3W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Daniel was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 119.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the west is expected later this morning, and this motion should continue until dissipation occurs. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Daniel is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system later this morning, and dissipate by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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