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Tropical Depression ONE-E Graphics
2013-05-15 18:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 May 2013 14:42:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 May 2013 15:03:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Graphics
2013-05-15 17:05:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 May 2013 14:42:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 May 2013 15:03:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-05-15 16:58:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED MAY 15 2013 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 151441 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 1500 UTC WED MAY 15 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 2 1 1 X 1 3 TROP DEPRESSION 32 14 8 3 3 8 28 TROPICAL STORM 66 75 62 46 44 63 64 HURRICANE 1 10 29 51 53 28 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 9 24 36 40 24 5 HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 10 10 3 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 3 1 X HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 70KT 65KT 55KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 6( 6) 41(47) 18(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) 12(12) 14(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-05-15 16:58:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151441 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013 THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME GETTING STARTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS. EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO FAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE MODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 8.2N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-05-15 16:58:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED MAY 15 2013 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151440 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013 1500 UTC WED MAY 15 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 103.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 103.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 103.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 8.6N 105.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.1N 107.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.2N 103.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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