je.st
news
Tag: onee
Tropical Depression ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-05-23 04:35:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 230235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CLIPPERTON IS 34 8 24(32) 9(41) 4(45) 4(49) 1(50) 1(51) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression ONE-E (EP1/EP012014)
2014-05-23 04:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu May 22 the center of ONE-E was located near 10.6, -107.8 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory Number 2
2014-05-23 04:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 230235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 107.8W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2014-05-23 04:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 230232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0300 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 107.8W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 107.8W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.1N 109.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.4N 109.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.8N 110.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 12.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-05-22 23:01:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 222101 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014 Corrected wording in third paragraph discussing SHIPS RI index. Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure well to the southwest of Mexico has gradually become better organized during the past 12 to 24 hours, and a 1708 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the system has a sufficiently well-defined center. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of the eastern North Pacific season. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite estimates of T1.5 from both TAFB and SAB. The depression has been moving slowly toward the west-northwest while located on the edge of a mid-level ridge extending west from Mexico, and the initial motion estimate is 285/3 kt. The depression is expected to remain just to the west of the ridge and to the south of a deep-layer cyclone centered over California, which will likely keep it in a weak steering environment for the next 3 to 4 days. In fact, the ECMWF model even shows the depression becoming nearly stationary or meandering for a few days due to the weak steering. The official forecast shows a relatively slow track toward the west-northwest during the next 5 days and is close to the model consensus TVCE. The depression is embedded in an environment of light vertical shear, which will likely support at least gradual intensification during the next few days. There is some disagreement among the intensity models as to how much strengthening will occur, however. For example, the statistical LGEM keeps the depression below tropical storm strength for about 48 hours. On the other hand, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 42 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in winds within the next 24 hours. With the RI index relatively high, the official forecast is higher than the LGEM for the first few days. By days 4 and 5, vertical shear is expected to strengthen, and the intensity is forecast to level off or decrease by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 10.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 10.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 10.8N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 11.1N 109.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 11.4N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Sites : [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] next »