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Tropical Depression ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-05-28 10:40:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU MAY 28 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 280840 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC THU MAY 28 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 11(38) 2(40) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-05-28 10:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU MAY 28 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 280839 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0900 UTC THU MAY 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 110.4W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 110.4W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 109.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 11.7N 111.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.4N 113.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Graphics
2014-05-23 11:07:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 May 2014 08:46:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 May 2014 09:03:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-05-23 10:44:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 230844 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 0900 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 12 17(29) 7(36) 3(39) 3(42) 3(45) 1(46) CLIPPERTON IS 50 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-05-23 10:44:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 230844 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014 200 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014 Convective banding is currently increasing near the center of Tropical Depression One-E over the northern semicircle. There have been multiple recent scatterometer overpasses, with recent ASCAT-A data showing an area of 25-30 kt winds about 60-75 n mi from the center over the northeastern quadrant. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 30 kt. The cirrus outflow is good in all directions. However, analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest some light southerly shear continues to affect the system. The scatterometer fixes have helped pin down the center location, and the initial motion is estimated at 295/4. The depression is south of a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer trough over the western United States. While the large-scale models forecast this trough to move eastward, the subtropical ridge is likely to remain weak with the tropical cyclone remaining in an area of light steering currents for most of the forecast period. While the guidance shows a large spread, there is general agreement that the depression should move slowly west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days, followed by a turn to the north as a mid/upper-level trough develops near 120W and a mid/upper-level ridge develops east of the cyclone. The new forecast track is near the previous track through 72 hour and is nudged a little to the east of the previous track after that time. The track lies north of the model consensus through 72 hours and west of the consensus at 96 and 120 hours. The depression is currently expected to be in an area of light/ moderate southerly vertical wind shear during the forecast period. This should allow at least gradual strengthening, and the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and the intensity consensus. There are two potential, and contradictory, issues with the intensity forecast. The first is that the large-scale models forecast moderate to strong upper-level winds near the cyclone during the forecast period, especially after 72 hours. If these winds get closer to the system than currently forecast, they could inhibit development. The second is that the SHIPS rapid intensification index is showing a significantly above- normal chance of rapid intensification, and the GFDL model forecasts the depression to reach hurricane strength in about 72 hours. If the stronger upper-level wind do not impact the cyclone, it could strengthen more than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.8N 108.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 11.1N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 11.3N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 11.5N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 11.6N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 12.0N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 12.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 13.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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