je.st
news
Tag: oscar
Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-10-28 21:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 282056 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Oscar Graphics
2018-10-28 15:54:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Oct 2018 14:54:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Oct 2018 15:22:08 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
oscar
tropical
Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-10-28 15:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 281450 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 Deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Oscar since early this morning and its low-level center is no longer exposed. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed since last night and the estimated intensity of 60 kt is above the various techniques. The initial intensity estimate is based primarily on the latest available ASCAT data from last night around 0100 UTC that showed maximum winds of 55-60 kt. Given the recent increase in convection observed near the center of Oscar, it seems unlikely that the winds have decreased since that time. It is worth noting that the small inner-core of Oscar increases the uncertainty of the intensity estimate, and could make the cyclone susceptible to short term intensity fluctuations that are nearly impossible to forecast or precisely detect. Virtually no change has been made to the intensity forecast. The tropical storm is moving over sufficiently warm water to support intensification and it is located within a light to moderate shear environment. All the intensity models forecast at least some strengthening, and Oscar is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight, with some additional strengthening possible through Wednesday. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin soon thereafter, which will likely result in a decrease in the maximum winds, even as the extent of tropical-storm-force winds rapidly increases. This process is expected to be complete by 120 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the intensity consensus IVCN at all forecast hours. Oscar turned abruptly westward earlier this morning, and the initial motion estimate is now 270/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving generally westward for another 12 to 24 h on the south side of a mid-layer ridge over the northern central Atlantic. Oscar should then turn toward the north between the ridge and a mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. By Wednesday, the cyclone is expected to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward as it becomes embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough. All of the global models agree on this general scenario, though there are differences regarding the exact timing that Oscar will begin its recurvature and how quickly it will accelerate across the northern Atlantic. That said, the track consensus aids have changed very little, and no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 25.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 25.6N 55.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 26.2N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 27.3N 58.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 29.3N 57.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 37.1N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 45.5N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 53.0N 22.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
storm
oscar
Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-28 15:50:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR POISED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 28 the center of Oscar was located near 25.5, -53.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
oscar
tropical
Tropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 7
2018-10-28 15:50:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 281450 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 ...OSCAR POISED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 53.8W ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 53.8 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued westward motion is anticipated today, followed by a turn toward the northwest late tonight or early Monday. By Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north or north-northeast with an increase in forward speed. The cyclone is then expected to quickly accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and Oscar is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
storm
oscar
Sites : [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] next »