je.st
news
Tag: oscar
Tropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 6
2018-10-28 09:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280832 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018 ...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 52.6W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 52.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. After that, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north on Monday night or Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Oscar is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
storm
oscar
Tropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-10-28 09:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 280832 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0900 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-10-28 09:31:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 280831 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0900 UTC SUN OCT 28 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 52.6W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 60SE 120SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 52.6W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 52.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.5N 56.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.4N 58.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.9N 58.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.6N 53.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 42.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 50.0N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 52.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
storm
oscar
advisory
Tropical Storm Oscar Graphics
2018-10-28 03:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Oct 2018 02:43:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Oct 2018 03:22:06 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
oscar
tropical
Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-10-28 03:38:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280237 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 Satellite imagery shows that convection associated with Oscar has become better organized, with increased banding around the low- level center. In addition, recent scatterometer data indicate that the system now has a relatively small wind field with a radius of maximum winds of about 25 n mi. Although the cyclone is still tangled up with the upper-level low to the point where it has not yet developed the anticyclonic outflow of a tropical cyclone, the convection and the wind field now justify calling the system a tropical storm. The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt based on the scatterometer data, and it is possible this is a little conservative. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 240/17, as the short-term motion has been more toward the southwest or south. For the next several hours, Oscar should continue to pivot around the upper-level low to its east. Thereafter, it should turn more westward with a decrease in forward speed on the south side of a large ridge over the North Atlantic. After about 36 h, a large deep-layer trough moving eastward across the western Atlantic should cause Oscar to turn northwestward and northward, followed by recurvature into the westerlies and acceleration. The track guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, although by 120 h there is some spread in both the direction and forward speed after recurvature. The new forecast track is near the various consensus models, and the early part of it is shifted a little to the south of the previous forecast due to the current location and motion. The global models suggest that the core of Oscar should mostly avoid nearby strong upper-level winds through 24-36 h, and then encounter strong upper-level divergence associated with the deep-layer trough. While the environment is not ideal for a tropical cyclone, conditions appear favorable for additional intensification, and the intensity forecast now calls for Oscar to reach hurricane strength in about 24 h. Interaction with the trough after 72 h should start extratropical transition, which should be complete between 96-120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 25.7N 51.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 25.2N 54.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 25.1N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 25.8N 58.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 27.2N 58.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 32.5N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 41.0N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 48.5N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
oscar
Sites : [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] next »