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Subtropical Storm Oscar Graphics
2018-10-27 16:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Oct 2018 14:47:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Oct 2018 15:22:11 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-10-27 16:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 271444 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 1500 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-10-27 16:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 271444 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 Oscar's organization has improved this morning. Although the subtropical storm is still entangled with an upper-level low, convection has increased near the center of the cyclone since last night. The most recent Hebert-Poteat subtropical intensity estimate from TAFB has increased accordingly to 45-50 kt. Furthermore, Canadian drifting buoy 47546 recently reported a minimum pressure of just below 996 mb to the east of Oscar's center, suggesting the central pressure of the cyclone has decreased since the last advisory. The initial intensity is therefore increased to 50 kt for this advisory. Little change has been made to the intensity forecast. The GFS and many of its associated models (HWRF, DSHP, LGEM) have changed abruptly and forecast far less intensification than they did just 6 hours ago. However, the CTCI, HMON, and ECMWF-based statistical guidance still show Oscar reaching hurricane strength within a few days. Rather than chase a possible short-term trend in the intensity guidance, the official intensity forecast will stay the course for now and is a little above the intensity consensus, bringing Oscar to hurricane strength in around 48 h. After that time, some slight additional intensification is possible, but Oscar is ultimately expected to undergo extratropical transition by the end of the forecast period, which should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. Oscar has turned toward the west and the initial motion estimate is now 270/11 kt. A west-southwestward motion is anticipated later today as Oscar moves around the back side of an mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the west on the south side of a subtropical ridge to the north. As long as Oscar intensifies as forecast, it should turn sharply northeastward early next week ahead of a mid-latitude trough advancing across the western and central Atlantic, and then accelerate in that direction while undergoing extratropical transition. The GFS is an outlier, showing a much weaker and vertically shallow cyclone that does not fully recurve, but all of the other global models are in generally good agreement with the scenario listed above. Despite the inconsistency of the GFS, the model consensus has not changed significantly since the last advisory, so only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 27.3N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 26.9N 50.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 26.2N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 29/0000Z 25.9N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 26.5N 57.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 30.2N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 37.0N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 47.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-27 16:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR TURNS TOWARD THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 27 the center of Oscar was located near 27.3, -48.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 3
2018-10-27 16:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 271444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 ...OSCAR TURNS TOWARD THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 48.4W ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 48.4 West. The storm is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is anticipated later today, followed by a turn back toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north and then the northeast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Oscar could become a hurricane after transitioning to a tropical storm later this weekend or early next week. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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