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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-12 22:45:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 12 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 122044 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC SAT JUN 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 123.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 123.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 123.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.9N 124.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.7N 125.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 11.4N 126.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.8N 126.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.0N 126.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 12.5N 126.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 15.2N 126.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 123.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Three-E Graphics
2020-06-25 16:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 14:39:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Jun 2020 14:39:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-06-25 16:36:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Convection has increased some this morning near the center of Tropical Depression 3-E, although the convective bands are poorly organized. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with scatterometer data from several hours ago. Although the depression has not intensified since yesterday, the intensity guidance suggests that the window for strengthening is open for about another 12-24 h. So, the intensity forecast shows slight strengthening during that period. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause the system to weaken, leading to it degenerating to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipating completely after 96 h. The new intensity forecast is a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is westward or 280/8. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 h as the system moves along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast and lies the near consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 10.8N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 11.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 11.7N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 12.2N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 12.2N 143.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three-E (EP3/EP032020)
2020-06-25 16:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Jun 25 the center of Three-E was located near 10.8, -136.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three-E Public Advisory Number 5
2020-06-25 16:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 251435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 ...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 136.2W ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1925 MI...3095 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 136.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with a turn back toward the west forecast Friday or Friday night, Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. After that, the system is forecast to weaken. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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