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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-06-24 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242031 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Three-E has a small and well-defined circulation with the center just to the northeast of the main convective mass. A recent ASCAT-B overpass showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center and 20-25 kt winds in other parts of the circulation. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is now 290/8. There is no change in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the northwest and west. This evolution should cause the depression to move northwestward between 12-60 h. After that, the cyclone should be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the balance of the forecast period. There is some spread in the forward speed between the faster GFS and the slower UKMET/ECMWF, and the new official forecast compromises between them in a track that is near, but a little faster than, the consensus models. There is also no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near 120 h. The intensity guidance for this advisory is weaker than the previous guidance, so the new intensity forecast, which is little changed, now lies near the upper end of the guidance through 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 10.6N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 11.0N 134.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 11.5N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 12.2N 136.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 12.9N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 13.3N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 13.4N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z 12.0N 149.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three-E (EP3/EP032020)
2020-06-24 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Jun 24 the center of Three-E was located near 10.6, -133.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-06-24 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 242031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020 ...DEPRESSION NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 133.8W ABOUT 1550 MI...2495 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1790 MI...2880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 133.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with this motion continuing through Friday. Recently received satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-06-24 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 242031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 2100 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 133.8W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 133.8W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 133.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.0N 134.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.5N 135.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.2N 136.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.9N 137.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.3N 138.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.4N 140.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 12.0N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 133.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Three-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-06-24 22:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 242031 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 2100 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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