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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-06-11 10:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110839 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 The depression does not appear to be strengthening yet. The cyclone has a broad circulation with some evidence of multiple centers. A pair of ASCAT passes at 0330 and 0415 UTC showed maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. Given that the convective pattern has not changed much since the time of the ASCAT data, the initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt. This intensity estimate is a little lower than the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT which are all T2.5/35 kt. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 305/7. The system is expected to slow down and turn northward later today or tonight when a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico cuts off and drifts westward. The low aloft is expected to weaken this weekend, which should allow ridging to become better established to the north of the tropical cyclone. This pattern change should cause the system to turn west-northwestward and increase in forward speed in a few days. Although a fair amount of spread still exists in the model solutions, they have come into better agreement compared to previous cycles. In fact, most of the guidance has shifted south and west away from the coast of southern Mexico, and the official track forecast follows that trend. The depression is expected to remain over warm water and in a moist airmass for the next several days. These conditions support steady intensification. A slightly inhibiting factor is vertical wind shear, which is forecast by the SHIPS model to be around 15 kt for the next few days. The official intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and shows gradual intensification through the period. This forecast lies at the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the SHIPS model. It should be noted that the future intensity of the system is dependent on how much it interacts with land, so if the system gets closer to the coast than predicted, the longer range part of the forecast could be too high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 13.1N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 13.5N 100.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 14.1N 100.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 14.4N 100.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 14.7N 100.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 15.5N 100.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 16.5N 103.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Graphics
2015-06-11 10:38:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Jun 2015 08:36:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Jun 2015 08:37:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-06-11 10:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 11 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 110835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0900 UTC THU JUN 11 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 6(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 6(18) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 12(19) 13(32) 4(36) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 16(26) 11(37) 3(40) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 13(24) 20(44) 6(50) 2(52) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 4(16) X(16) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 16(37) 5(42) 1(43) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 1(16) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression THREE-E (EP3/EP032015)
2015-06-11 10:35:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 the center of THREE-E was located near 13.1, -100.2 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression THREE-E Public Advisory Number 3
2015-06-11 10:35:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 110835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 100.2W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 100.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected to occur later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could spread over portions of the southern coast of Mexico, primarily in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, during the next couple of days. SURF: Swells associated with the depression are expected to increase near the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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