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Tropical Depression Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2021-06-20 04:38:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200238 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Depression Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-06-20 04:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0300 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 104.3W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 104.3W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 104.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 104.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Summary for Tropical Depression Dolores (EP4/EP042021)

2021-06-20 02:01:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOLORES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Dolores was located near 21.3, -104.2 with movement NNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Dolores Public Advisory Number 7A

2021-06-20 02:01:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200001 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 7A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 700 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Corrected header ...DOLORES WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 104.2W ABOUT 83 MI...133 KM NW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO ABOUT 78 MI...126 KM NE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dolores was located inland near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 104.2 West. Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 20 mph (32 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores will move farther inland across the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, and Durango. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast, and Dolores is expected to dissipate over west-central Mexico by Sunday. Surface observations indicate that the minimum central pressure has risen to 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto Vallarta through this evening. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend. This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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