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Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-19 13:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES STILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND NEARING LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN MICHOACAN OR COLIMA COAST... ...HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Dolores was located near 17.9, -103.4 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-06-19 13:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 191151 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 700 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...DOLORES STILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND NEARING LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN MICHOACAN OR COLIMA COAST... ...HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 103.4W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 103.4 West. Dolores is moving faster toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue until landfall. Dolores is forecast to make landfall along the southwestern coast of Mexico within the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional intensification is possible prior to landfall, and Dolores is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Dolores is expected to dissipate by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the warning area, and outside preparations should be complete. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area this evening through Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit through the weekend. This will likely produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Additionally, 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected for western Oaxaca, as well as southern Sinaloa. This may produce life threatening flash flooding. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Dolores Graphics
2021-06-19 13:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 11:51:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 09:29:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dolores Graphics
2021-06-19 11:07:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 09:07:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 09:29:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-19 10:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190852 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Dolores appears to be in another bursting pattern coincident with the diurnal max this morning, as deep convection and cold cloud tops have increased in coverage and intensity near the estimated low-level center. A distinct curved band has also formed along the storm's southern semicircle. The latest Dvorak subjective intensity estimates were both T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, though the most recent CIMSS-ADT intensity estimate was only T3.0/45 kt. Unfortunately there has not been no recent microwave or scatterometer data available to better assess the inner core structure of the cyclone. Blending the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the maximum sustained winds was raised to 50 kt for this advisory, though this value may be conservative. Dolores appears to be making a slow right turn as the storm gradually accelerates while it rounds the western side of a mid-level ridge, currently moving at 330/9 kt. A gradual acceleration toward the north-northwest is anticipated until landfall with this motion continuing until the storm dissipates over the high terrain of western Mexico. The latest track forecast is a bit to the east of the previous forecast cycle but remains in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. On this track, Dolores is expected to reach the Mexican coastline in the next 12 h and push far inland thereafter. Given the eastward adjustment in the forecast track, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane watch further to the southeast for this advisory. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional intensification right up until landfall along the Mexican coast, close to Punta San Telmo, in about 12 h. The current forecast intensity for 60 kt in 12 hours is a bit higher than the guidance consensus, as few models already have the storm inland at that time. Rapid weakening is forecast as Dolores moves inland over western Mexico thereafter and the storm will likely dissipate by 36 h, if not sooner. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today up until landfall, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by this afternoon. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.0N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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