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Remnants of Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 9
2021-06-20 10:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200833 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 103.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 103.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 103.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Dolores Graphics
2021-06-20 04:40:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 02:40:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 03:28:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-20 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200239 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Dolores Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Tropical Depression Dolores continues to rapidly weaken. It is getting very difficult to locate a low-level center at this time, if one still exists over the mountainous terrain. Given the length of time already spent over this terrain, the estimated initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt for this advisory. Dolores is moving north at 18 kt between a ridge to its east and a mid-level low to its west. This motion is expected to continue through tonight, keeping Dolores well inland over western Mexico. This track over the rugged terrain should cause Dolores to finally dissipate late tonight or on Sunday morning. Although Dolores may dissipate soon, the abundant moisture associated with the system is expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico for the remainder of the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto Vallarta through early tonight. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Sunday, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 22.3N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Depression Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-20 04:38:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER INLAND MEXICO BY SUNDAY MORNING... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Dolores was located near 22.3, -104.3 with movement N at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Dolores Public Advisory Number 8
2021-06-20 04:38:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200238 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Dolores Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...DOLORES EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER INLAND MEXICO BY SUNDAY MORNING... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 104.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NNW OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Dolores was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 104.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Dolores is forecast to dissipate by Sunday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto Vallarta through early tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Dolores or its remnants will produce an additional 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Sunday. This will likely produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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