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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-08-13 10:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130832 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 Deep convection has been gradually increasing near and to the west of the center of the depression during the last several hours. The banding features, however, have become a little less defined recently. ASCAT passes at 0420 and 0506 UTC showed maximum winds of about 30 kt, and Dvorak intensity estimates also support an intensity of that value. Therefore, the initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States. This ridge is expected to build over the Pacific Ocean, which should steer the tropical cyclone westward away from Mexico during the next several days. The model guidance has shifted a little to the north and is faster this cycle, and the official track forecast has been adjusted to account for these changes. The ECMWF is now in better agreement with the remainder of the guidance as the latest run shows less interaction with a developing disturbance to the east of the cyclone. Moderate northeasterly shear is currently affecting the system, which is likely the reason why the convection is currently displaced to the west of the center. The shear is expected to lessen during the next day or so, and the environmental winds are anticipated to remain conducive for development through the remainder of the forecast period. In addition, warm water and a relatively moist air mass should also support strengthening. The SHIPS and LGEM models respond to the favorable environment and show a steady strengthening trend. Conversely, the HWRF and GFDL models predict little or no strengthening of the system. Given the aforementioned environmental conditions, the official intensity forecast remains higher than the consensus in favor of the SHIPS and LGEM solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 17.0N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.4N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 17.5N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 17.6N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 17.7N 118.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 18.2N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-13 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 13 the center of ELEVEN-E was located near 17.0, -109.8 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Public Advisory Number 2
2014-08-13 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 130832 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014 ...DEPRESSION MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 109.8W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-08-13 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 13 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 130832 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC WED AUG 13 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X 24(24) 15(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2014-08-13 10:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 13 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 130831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC WED AUG 13 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.4N 111.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.5N 114.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.7N 118.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.2N 123.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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