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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Graphics
2014-08-22 06:25:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 04:25:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 03:07:16 GMT
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Graphics
2014-08-22 05:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 03:31:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Aug 2014 03:07:16 GMT
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-08-22 05:16:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220316 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 99.0W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 99.0W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 98.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 99.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-08-22 04:55:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220255 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with scatterometer surface wind data, indicate that the large low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better organized during the past several hours. Curved bands of deep convection have developed near the well-defined center, and the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, which is supported by winds of 31 kt and 30 kt noted in two earlier ASCAT overpasses. Upper-level outflow is good in all quadrants and has been expanding. The initial motion estimate of 295/12 kt is based on microwave fix positions over the past 9 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly clustered and in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving west-northwestward and remaining well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico throughout the forecast period. This is due to a strong subtropical ridge anchored over the southern U.S. and northern Mexico. The NHC track forecast closely follows the consensus model TVCE. The cyclone is expected to remain in very favorable thermodynamic and oceanic environments that will be conducive for development. The official intensity forecast is fairly robust, but not nearly as aggressive as the SHIPS model, which brings the system to category 4 strength in 96 hours. The NHC forecast more closely follows the intensity consensus model ICON, making the cyclone a hurricane in 48 hours and brings it to near major hurricane status by Day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 12.4N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-08-22 04:54:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220254 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 26(54) 4(58) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 2(26) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 10(47) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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