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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-23 22:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Aug 23 the center of FOUR was located near 21.8, -72.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR Public Advisory Number 1
2014-08-23 22:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232048 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014 CORRECTED TYPO IN HEADLINE ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 72.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE DATA FROM PROVIDENCIALES IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-08-23 22:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 232048 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined circulation this afternoon. Even though the convective presentation is somewhat ragged, there is enough organization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. The intensity is set to 30 kt based on flight level wind data from the aircraft and an earlier ASCAT pass, and the central pressure of 1005 mb is based on a recent surface observation from Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. The SHIPS model shows light to moderate shear over the cyclone for the next couple of days, which should allow for intensification given that the cyclone will be moving over waters of 29 to 30C. The NHC forecast shows slow strengthening in the first 24 to 36 hours as the cyclone organizes. Global models show more favorable upper- level winds over the system in a couple of days, which should allow for strengthening to a hurricane in by 3 days. The official forecast is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period. The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 310/10 given the recent formation of the center. The cyclone should continue moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid/upper-level trough off the U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. Then as a subtropical ridge rebuilds to the east of the cyclone later in the period, the system is expected to turn northward and then northeastward. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical model cycles. Currently the GFDL and GFS are along the western edge of the guidance envelope showing a more westward track and a slower motion at day 5. The ECMWF, GEFS mean, and HWRF show a sharper turn and a more northeastward motion by day 5 on the east side of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is near the TVCA multi-model consensus through most of the period and a little to the left of it at day 5. Given the spread in the guidance and the recent formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 21.8N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression FOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2014-08-23 22:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 232040 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 7(27) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 7(26) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) 5(27) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 10(22) 3(25) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 2(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 22(28) 14(42) 3(45) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 21(41) 5(46) 1(47) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 12(28) 3(31) 1(32) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 10(11) 13(24) 10(34) 7(41) 2(43) X(43) GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 51(55) 12(67) 6(73) 3(76) X(76) X(76) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 10(10) 8(18) 5(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) SAN SALVADOR 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 29 2(31) 2(33) 2(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Advisory Number 1
2014-08-23 22:40:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 232040 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.3W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.3W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 72.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 72.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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