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Tropical Depression Claudette Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-06-20 13:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201145 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 700 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 ...CLAUDETTE STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 84.8W ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM W OF ATLANTA GEORGIA ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 84.8 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). On the forecast track, the system should cross portions of the southeast U.S. through tonight, move over the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday, and be located south of Nova Scotia by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is forecast to become a tropical storm again on Monday over eastern North Carolina. Further strengthening is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday. Claudette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, northern and central Georgia, and Upstate South Carolina through the morning hours. As the system tracks north and east, bands of heavy rain will occur across portions of central and southern Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina into eastern North Carolina through Monday morning resulting in rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are possible across these areas. Storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch amounts was observed in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area late tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-20 10:48:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200848 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 The area of deep convection near the center of Claudette has weakened over the past several hours, though rain bands have become more distinct in the southeastern quadrant. Surface observations continue to indicate that the maximum winds are about 25 kt, and these winds are almost all over the Gulf of Mexico well to the south of the center. Claudette is moving east-northeastward at about 11 kt. The system should gradually accelelerate in that direction through tonight as it moves ahead of a digging trough over the central United States, and all of the models show the system near the North Carolina coast by midday Monday. Claudette should then move even faster to the northeast through Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned trough due to stronger steering flow. Guidance remains in very good agreement through that time, and little change was made to the previous forecast. The end of the forecast remains uncertain as some of the guidance is showing more of a turn to the left closer to Nova Scotia. However, a stronger system would argue for something that remains more separate from the large mid-latitude trough steering the system, so the new forecast is close to the previous one, on the south side of the guidance. Conditions appear to be conducive for the re-development of Claudette once it encounters a more unstable marine environment late today. The system should move close to the Gulf Stream by Monday afternoon, likely fueling intensification while the shear is low. The previously divergent model suite is in better agreement now, with the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF models all showing the system becoming a tropical storm again near the North Carolina Outer Banks with some strengthening over the western Atlantic Ocean. Extratropical transiton should be quick after it moves north of the Gulf Stream, assisted by strong shear in 48 to 60 hours. The new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, close to the NOAA Corrected Consensus Guidance. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama, and Georgia through this morning, and into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 33.3N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/1800Z 33.8N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0600Z 34.7N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z 36.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 42.7N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0600Z 46.5N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Claudette Graphics
2021-06-20 10:45:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 08:45:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 08:45:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-06-20 10:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 200844 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0900 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 35(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 19(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 5( 5) 28(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SURF CITY NC 34 X 12(12) 19(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 17(17) 12(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 15(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) FLORENCE SC 34 X 27(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 21(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-20 10:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR MUCH OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...CLAUDETTE STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 the center of Claudette was located near 33.3, -85.8 with movement ENE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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