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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Graphics
2020-09-29 10:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2020 08:44:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2020 08:44:59 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-29 10:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290843 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A burst of deep convection that developed near the center of the area of low pressure well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the evening has persisted overnight. Microwave imagery and a 0444 UTC ASCAT-C overpass indicated that the center of the low re-formed within the area of deep convection and with the overall increase in the organization of the system, advisories are being initiated on the eighteen tropical depression of the 2020 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The scatterometer data revealed peak winds of around 30 kt, and that is used as the advisory intensity. The depression is located over warm water and within an area of light to moderate northeasterly shear, and these conditions are expected to allow for steady strengthening over the next few days. Although the SHIPS model guidance only shows a peak intensity of 65-70 kt in 72-84 hours, the SHIPS rapid intensification index indicates a 50 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in intensity over the next 72 hours. In addition, the global models significantly deepen the system over the next few days. On the basis of the SHIP RI information and the global models, the NHC intensity forecast is above the IVCN intensity consensus close to the more aggressive HWRF and HCCA models. Late in the period, decreasing SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear should result in weakening. Given the recent re-formation of the center, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 275/9 kt. A deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern United States is expected to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during the next several days. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone will be approaching the southwestern portion of the ridge allowing it to turn northwesterly. Although there some model differences in the predicted forward speed of the depression, the models are in good agreement on the overall track forecast scenario. To account for these forward speed differences, the NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 13.2N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 13.5N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 14.2N 111.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 14.8N 117.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 16.2N 122.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 18.3N 126.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 20.5N 129.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-29 10:42:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290842 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 22(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 50(51) 25(76) X(76) 1(77) X(77) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 12(12) 22(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 67(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 1(47) X(47) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) 1(41) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 5(35) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen-E (EP3/EP182020)
2020-09-29 10:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 the center of Eighteen-E was located near 13.2, -107.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-29 10:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290842 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 107.6W ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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