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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-29 10:42:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290841 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.5N 109.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.2N 111.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.8N 117.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 122.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 18.3N 126.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 129.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 107.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Beta Graphics
2020-09-22 22:44:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 20:44:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 20:44:17 GMT
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Tropical Depression Beta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-22 22:43:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222043 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Beta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has continued to weaken. What convection remains is quite shallow with a few cloud tops only extending up to 25,000- 30,000 ft ASL, mainly near and northeast of the center. However, those low-topped showers are quite prodigious rain-producers with rainfall totals of 13-14 inches having been measured across portions of the Houston metropolitan area thus far. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on near-shore buoy and surface observing stations. The initial motion estimate is now 065/04 kt. A coastal convergence zone or trough has formed about 20-25 nmi inland from the Texas Gulf coast and, owing to the lack of any significant deep-layer steering flow, Beta is forecast to move slowly along that trough axis and remain inland throughout the forecast period as a result. The ECMWF and UKMET models move Beta rapidly northeastward after 48 hours, but that scenario seems to be overdone given the expected shallow nature of the cyclone. The new NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models, except that I used the slower forward speed of the GFS model. Since Beta is forecast to remain inland for the next throughout the forecast period, the cyclone is not expected to regain tropical storm status. Beta to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours, and dissipate over Mississippi or Alabama in 96 hours, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely the simple and corrected-consensus models IVCN and HCCA. This is the last NHC advisory on Beta. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Key Messages: 1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible on smaller rivers. 2. Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in above normal high tides, and coastal flooding over the next few days will be slow to recede. For information on the ongoing coastal flooding, please refer to coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 29.0N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 29.3N 95.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 30.1N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 31.3N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 32.5N 90.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 33.8N 88.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 35.1N 87.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-22 22:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SLOW-MOVING BETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 the center of Beta was located near 29.0, -96.3 with movement ENE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Beta Public Advisory Number 21
2020-09-22 22:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 222042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Beta Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...SLOW-MOVING BETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 96.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beta was located by surface observations, satellites, and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 96.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Data from surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through Friday, and Beta is expected to become a remnant low pressure system by late Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue today. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 13 to 14 inches have been measured across portions of the Houston metropolitan area thus far. Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as isolated minor river flooding on smaller rivers. TORNADOES: A tornado or two cannot be ruled out this evening along the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Information on ongoing coastal flooding can be found in coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last NHC advisory on Beta. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Stewart
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