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Tropical Depression Gamma Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-05 22:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 052033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Gamma Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 The last couple of legs of the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission and recent METOP-A and C scatterometer passes support lowering Gamma's initial intensity to 30 kt for this advisory. Conventional satellite imagery reveals that the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 10 hours and is on its way to becoming a post-tropical remnant low. Strong southerly shear and a stable, relatively dry surrounding air mass should prevent any significant convective regeneration as the system approaches the northern coast of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula tomorrow. After the remnants of Gamma makes landfall, dissipation is likely to occur Wednesday as larger, Tropical Storm Delta approaches the Yucatan Channel. The initial motion is estimated to be southwestward, or 230/4 kt. A continued southwestward or west-southwestward motion is expected through Wednesday morning while moving inland over the northern Mexican State of Yucatan. The NHC forecast track is basically an update of this morning's package and is based on the various multi-model consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall through midweek over portions of southeast Mexico, including the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall could result in areas of flash flooding. 2. Gusty winds are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.1N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.6N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 20.9N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 20.0N 90.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Gamma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-10-05 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 052033 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MERIDA MX 34 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gamma (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-05 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GAMMA BECOMES A DEPRESSION... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Gamma was located near 22.1, -88.1 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Gamma Public Advisory Number 14
2020-10-05 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 052032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gamma Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...GAMMA BECOMES A DEPRESSION... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 88.1W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Warning and the Tropical Storm Watch along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gamma was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 88.1 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a southwest, or west-southwest motion is expected to continue through Wednesday morning. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move inland over the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula Tuesday and remain over the northern portion of the peninsula and dissipate Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gamma is expected degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tonight and dissipate over the northern portion of the Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding. WIND: Gusty winds are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Gamma Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-05 22:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 052032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL WARNING AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.1W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 88.1W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 88.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.9N 89.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 90.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 88.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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