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Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-10-05 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 050233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 77.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 77.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 77.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 77.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Graphics
2020-10-02 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 20:36:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 20:36:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-10-02 22:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Convective banding features have become a little better defined over the southern portion of the circulation, but otherwise the system has not changed much in organization since earlier today. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and scatterometer observations from a few hours ago. The SHIPS model output now shows some south-southwesterly shear affecting the system during the next few days. Otherwise, the environment should favor at least gradual strengthening, and the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm prior to moving near the Yucatan Peninsula. The official intensity forecast is within the range of most of the model guidance. The initial motion estimate is the same as in the morning advisory, 315/8 kt. The depression should move along the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area for the next couple of days, causing the cyclone to move on a northwestward to north-northwestward heading. Later in the forecast period, the global models build a weak ridge across the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico. This should induce the cyclone to turn westward or even a little south of west in 3-5 days. The latest NHC forecast lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA, and is quite similar to the previous official forecast. At this time, the biggest threat from this slow-moving system is rain and flooding, particularly near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.8N 85.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.5N 86.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 20.5N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 21.6N 87.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 22.3N 87.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 22.5N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 22.5N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 22.0N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Five (AT5/AL252020)
2020-10-02 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 the center of Twenty-Five was located near 18.8, -85.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Public Advisory Number 2
2020-10-02 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Five Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 85.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Five was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the tropical cyclone should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba. A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by Saturday morning, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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