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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 30
2020-09-14 16:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 141451 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Deep convection continues to pulse over the eastern portion of Rene's circulation, enough to maintain the system's status as a tropical cyclone. However, recent visible statellite imagery suggest that the circulation may not be as well defined as it was yesterday. Satellite classifications support an initial wind speed of 25 kt. Strong west-northwesterly shear and dry air are expected to cause the depression to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12-24 hours. The global models show the low-level circulation dissipating within 2 to 3 days and so does the official forecast. Rene has moved very little overnight but a west-southwestward or southwestward motion within the low-level steering flow should begin soon. That general motion is expected to continue until dissipation in a day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 27.5N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 27.0N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/1200Z 26.4N 50.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 24.6N 53.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-14 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE CONTINUES TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 14 the center of Rene was located near 27.5, -48.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 30
2020-09-14 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 141450 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RENE CONTINUES TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 48.3W ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 48.3 West. The depression is stationary. A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin later today and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low tonight, and dissipate by late Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 30
2020-09-14 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 141450 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.3W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.3W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.4N 50.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 24.6N 53.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 48.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-14 11:50:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140950 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 First-light visible satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system that moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago has continued to become better organized overnight. Scatterometer surface wind data from around 13/2200 UTC indicated that the circulation had become better defined, and that surface winds of 25-28 kt existed in the southwestern quadrant. Since then, deep convection has increased, and it is presumed that the surface winds and circulation definition have increased in response, which justifies the initiation of advisories on TD-21. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 355/05 kt. The cyclone is forecast to gradually move northward today and northwestward tonight as the depression moves around the eastern end of the eastern Atlantic/west African monsoon trough. By Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday and Thursday, a west-northwestward to westward motion along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge is expected. The NHC track forecast lies down the middle of the surprisingly tightly packed guidance envelope, and is similar to the consensus model TVCA. The depression is expected to be short-lived as a tropical cyclone. Having said that, there is a narrow window of opportunity today and tonight for the cyclone to strengthen into a tropical storm before strong westerly shear in excess of 30 kt is forecast to induce rapid weakening on Tuesday. The cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night, and then dissipate over water on Friday, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1000Z 18.5N 28.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 19.6N 28.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 20.5N 29.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 21.3N 30.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 21.9N 32.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 22.4N 34.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 22.8N 36.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 23.4N 41.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart/Beven
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