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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-08-20 16:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 201456 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) 1(21) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 29(45) 2(47) X(47) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) GUANAJA 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-20 16:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 201455 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS * BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS...INCLUDING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 79.7W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 79.7W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.5N 81.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.3N 84.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.1N 85.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.4N 86.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.9N 87.4W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 92.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.0N 94.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 79.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2020-08-20 16:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 14:53:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 14:53:09 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-20 16:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201452 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 The organization of the depression has not changed much overnight or this morning. An area of convection has persisted near the estimated center, with some banding noted over the northwestern portion of the circulation. An earlier SSMIS overpass was very helpful in locating the center of what appears to be a small circulation. A very recent ASCAT overpass has also revealed a small circulation that is weak on the southeastern side, but with winds near tropical storm strength to the north of the center. The ASCAT data along with subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the 30-kt initial intensity. The depression continues to move briskly west-northwestward or 290/18 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed from before. A subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast to build westward and strengthen over the next several days. This pattern is expected to keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward heading throughout the forecast period. The dynamical models continue to agree on this overall scenario, but there some differences in both forward speed and how close it gets to the Greater Antilles. In general, the models that indicate a stronger cyclone favor a more northern track, while those which depicted a weaker system are along the southern and faster side of the envelope. The latest consensus aids are little north of the previous track, and the new NHC forecast lies between the HFIP corrected consensus and the TVCA multi-model consensus. This is slightly north of the previous advisory, and not far from the GFS ensemble mean. The environment consisting of light to moderate vertical wind shear is expected to allow for gradual strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The upper-level wind pattern is expected to remain favorable in the latter portion of the forecast period, and if there is minimal land interaction, a faster rate of strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity foreast now shows the system becoming a hurricane by 96 hours, but it is a little lower than the consensus aids at days 4 and 5 due to uncertainty in how much the system will interact with the Greater Antilles. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday. 2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today. Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 17.0N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 18.0N 58.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 18.9N 61.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 19.6N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 20.4N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 24.0N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-20 16:50:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20 the center of Thirteen was located near 16.0, -52.0 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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