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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics

2020-08-21 04:50:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 02:50:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 02:50:07 GMT

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2020-08-21 04:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 210249 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 4(30) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 4(36) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 4(27) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 5(40) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 5(34) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 10(40) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 8(26) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 15(39) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 2(25) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31) 1(32) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 24(41) X(41) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 9(38) 1(39) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 3(25) X(25) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 1(39) X(39) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 29(39) X(39) X(39) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) X(21) X(21) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SABA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-08-21 04:49:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210249 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been flying all around the circulation of the depression this evening, providing valuable information on the low-level structure. The strongest winds are primarily northeast of the center, with an elongated surface circulation and a mid-level swirl near the southern end. While the plane couldn't locate a definite center, there's enough uncertainty and curvature in the plane's wind field data to hold onto the system as 30-kt tropical depression for now. Another mission should be in the area around 1200 UTC. A late-arriving scatterometer pass confirms both the disorganization of the cyclone and the maximum winds. The initial motion continues about the same as before, 290/19. A strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should remain north of the depression during the next few days, steering the cyclone at a fast pace to the west-northwest. After the weekend, the ridge weakens some over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, leading to depression probably turning more to the northwest. The guidance has trended to the south and west after 24 hours tonight, led by the GFS and HWRF models. I'm not inclined to make significant changes since the models are about to ingest the information from the reconnaissance mission, plus the initial disorganization of the center, but the new track is still adjusted slightly to the south and west, north of much of the guidance. The depression should be moving through mixed conditions over the next few days. While the water is very warm, GFS forecasts show that there is significant mid-level shear that could continue to mix in nearby dry air toward the center. This shear will probably relax late this weekend or early next week, but there is very poor agreement on how much shear remains and the timing of this event. In addition, a track any farther south would result in potentially mountainous land interaction, which also increases the intensity forecast uncertainty. No significant changes were made to the previous wind speed forecast, and the overall confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts remain lower than normal. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 17.3N 56.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 17.9N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.6N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 19.4N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 20.3N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 21.3N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 22.6N 76.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 26.0N 82.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)

2020-08-21 04:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 20 the center of Thirteen was located near 17.3, -56.4 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-08-21 04:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210248 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 56.4W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 56.4W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.9N 59.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.6N 62.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.4N 65.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.3N 69.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.6N 76.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.0N 82.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 56.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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