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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-20 22:57:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 202057 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system found an area of lighter winds--likely where the center would be--farther south than previous estimates. The highest flight-level wind measured by the aircraft was 30 kt at an altitude of 2500 feet, and although there were some SFMR measurements over 40 kt, these looked coincident with some heavy rain rates and thus are probably not reliable. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Structurally, the depression has a large cloud envelope with sporadic convective cells located in loose bands. The updated initial position derived from the aircraft data indicates that the current motion is still westward, or 270/16 kt. This southward adjustment really only affected the first 36 hours or so of the forecast, with NHC's official track forecast being shifted southward during that period. This ends up taking the cyclone's center over extreme northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras in 12-24 hours. After 36 hours, model guidance remains in good agreement that the system should turn northwestward due to a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The new set of model guidance has not shifted much from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the morning forecast despite the initial position adjustment, with perhaps a slight eastward shift on days 4 and 5. In general, the NHC forecast is closest to the GFS and HCCA model solutions. The depression's farther-south position makes the intensity forecast more complicated with potentially more land interaction with parts of Central America. Slight strengthening to tropical storm strength is expected before the center reaches Honduras and Nicaragua, with little change thereafter until the center re-emerges over the Gulf of Honduras. Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures should then support further intensification up until it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Since there is significant uncertainty in how land interaction will affect the cyclone's intensity, the forecast intensity has been flat-lined between day 2 and day 4, with the understanding that the the winds could increase or decrease from the value shown. Vertical shear is expected to increase by day 5, and some weakening is shown at that time. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, beginning tonight through Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday, and watches could be required for a portion of that area tonight. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 14.3N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 14.7N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 15.6N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0600Z 17.0N 85.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/1800Z 18.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 20.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 22.1N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 24/1800Z 26.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 28.5N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-20 22:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 the center of Fourteen was located near 14.3, -81.0 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-20 22:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 202057 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 81.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla and for the Bay Islands. The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, may be required later this evening or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 81.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Friday, with a general northwest motion continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or over extreme northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-20 22:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 202057 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 10(27) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) X(23) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 26(45) 1(46) 1(47) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) GUANAJA 34 X 5( 5) 23(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-20 22:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 202056 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS * BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS...INCLUDING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 81.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 81.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 80.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.7N 83.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.6N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 85.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.7N 86.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.3N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.1N 89.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 81.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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