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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-08-20 07:48:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200548 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 49.0W ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches could be required for those areas on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 49.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-20 06:38:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 19 the center of Thirteen was located near 14.6, -47.9 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 1
2020-08-20 06:38:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200437 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020 Corrected date in rainfall statement ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches could be required for those areas on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by late Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2020-08-20 04:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 02:53:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 02:53:57 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-20 04:52:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200252 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 19 2020 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring over the central tropical Atlantic has now developed a well-defined center of circulation and maintained enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression, the thirteenth cyclone of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The depression already has some banding features on its north and west sides as evident in geostationary satellite and microwave images. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on ASCAT data from around 0100 UTC and a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB. The depression has been moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 295/17 kt. It should be noted that the initial motion is somewhat uncertain given that the system has only recently formed. A subtropical ridge currently over the central Atlantic is expected to build westward during the next several days and should be the primary steering feature for the depression through the forecast period. This pattern should keep the depression on a fairly quick west-northwest track during the next several days, taking the cyclone near the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night and near the Greater Antilles and southeastern Bahamas this weekend. The models are in fairly good agreement, but there is some north-south spread with the GFS being on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the northern end. The NHC track forecast lies down the middle of the guidance suite. The environmental conditions appear generally favorable for the depression to strengthen, with the wind shear expected to remain relatively low while the system moves over warm SSTs and remains in a moist airmass. These conditions should promote gradual strengthening and it seems quite likely that the cyclone will be a tropical storm when it moves near or north of the northern Leeward Islands in a couple of days. The bigger question is how much interaction will there be with the Greater Antilles. If the depression moves on the south side of the guidance envelope, further strengthening would be limited due to land interaction. Conversely, if the system gains more latitude and moves north of these highly topographic islands, it could have the opportunity for more significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast, which is of low confidence, is roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday. 2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands tomorrow. Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.6N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 16.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 17.4N 54.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 18.4N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 19.1N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 19.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 20.8N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 22.9N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 26.2N 82.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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