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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 3A
2021-09-08 13:56:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 081156 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 107.3W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. It could then become a short-lived hurricane Thursday or Thursday night. Weakening is expected on Friday when the system moves over colder waters. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2021-09-08 10:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 08:51:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 09:29:08 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-08 10:49:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080849 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 The circulation of the depression has continued to become better defined, and there has been a substantial increase in deep convection within bands to the north and northeast of the center. However, the inner core remains slightly displaced from this activity, and a combination of subjective and objective intensity estimates supports maintaining the cyclone as a 30-kt depression for this advisory. The system has either been meandering or its center re-formed yesterday, and the long-term motion is a drift toward the north-northwest (335 degrees) at about 3 kt. This motion is likely due to the depression being caught within weak steering currents between a mid-level low west of the Baja California peninsula and troughing extending across Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico. A strong mid-tropospheric high over the western United States should gradually cause the system to move faster toward the northwest during the next 2 to 3 days, bringing it very close to Baja California Sur in about 48 hours. Of the track models, the GFS and COAMPS-TC models are the solutions which bring the cyclone's center closest to Baja California Sur, while the ECMWF and UKMET models have the farther-offshore tracks. The new NHC track forecast splits the difference among these solutions and is a little east of the previous forecast during the first 36 hours to account for recent short-term motions. After 36 hours, it falls more or less in line with the previous prediction and is very close to the consensus aids, HWRF, and HMON. There are counteracting factors at play regarding the depression's future intensity. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be low, the GFS suggests that moderate to strong mid-level shear could develop below the outflow level during the next 24-48 hours. Sea surface temperatures will be plenty warm for strengthening during the next 48 hours, yet upper-level divergence is not expected to be ideal. Since the system's circulation appears to be improving, steady strengthening is forecast during the first 48 hours, and the depression could become a short-lived hurricane while it passes the Baja California peninsula. This forecast is near the upper end of the guidance envelope, close to the GFS, HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA solutions. The cyclone will be moving over colder waters in 2-3 days, which should cause quick weakening and a degeneration to remnant low status by day 4. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, and it could become a short-lived hurricane while it passes just to the southwest of southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for southern portions of Baja California Sur, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of the depression. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 18.5N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 19.1N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 20.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 22.3N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 23.9N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 24.1N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 23.6N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-08 10:49:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080849 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 26(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 22(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 16(17) 32(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) 1(18) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-08 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 18.5, -107.1 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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