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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-01 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 010232 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually becoming better organized. An area of deep convection has been persisting near the center, and banding features are beginning to take shape. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 2.5/35 kt, which would support upgrading the system to a tropical storm. However, a recent ASCAT-B overpass around 2300 UTC showed maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range in the northeastern quadrant, and based on that data the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The tropical depression is moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest at 17 kt. The track forecast reasoning appears fairly straightforward. The cyclone is expected to move at a relatively fast pace to the west or west-northwest during the next couple of days as it remains on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest are expected as the system nears the southwestern side of the ridge. Although most of the models agree on the synoptic steering pattern, there is a fair amount of spread from days 3 to 5 in how soon the northwestward turn will occur. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is a little to the north of the previous one based on the more poleward initial position. Since the system is expected to be over relatively warm water and in an air mass of low wind shear and abundant moisture, steady strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The depression is likely to become a tropical storm within the next 12 hours and a hurricane in 36 to 48 hours. Beyond a few days, an increase in shear and drier air should slow the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR models. In addition, the global models all show the cyclone becoming fairly large toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast wind radii is larger than the previous one, trending toward the radii consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 12.1N 23.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 12.6N 25.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 12.8N 29.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 13.2N 32.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 13.8N 35.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 14.5N 37.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 15.4N 40.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 18.0N 44.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 47.9W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-09-01 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 51.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 51.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 51.1W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 52.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.9N 53.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.8N 53.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.6N 54.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 33.1N 53.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 51.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twelve (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-01 04:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 AM CVT Wed Sep 1 the center of Twelve was located near 12.1, -23.2 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twelve Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-01 04:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 010231 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 23.2W ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 23.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Twelve Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-01 04:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 046 FONT12 KNHC 010231 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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