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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-08 04:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080242 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 107.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2021-09-07 22:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 20:44:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Sep 2021 21:29:06 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-07 22:41:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072041 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 Over the past day or so, convection has gradually become better organized in association with the area of low pressure offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is now a large curved band to the east of the center, and outflow is increasing in all quadrants. Based on the improving convective organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. An ASCAT-B overpass a few hours ago indicated the peak winds associated with the depression were 26 kt, and assuming some undersampling, the initial advisory intensity is set at 30 kt. The depression has been moving slowly west-northwestward today, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. Another ridge is forecast to begin building from the southwestern United States to over northern Mexico tonight, which should turn the cyclone to the northwest. The system should then gradually accelerate through midweek as it gets caught in the flow between this ridge, and a mid- to upper-level trough to its west. By late in the forecast period, a turn to the west is expected as the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The model guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to the various model consensus solutions. It should be noted that based on this track forecast, the center of the cyclone would approach within 120 n mi of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Thursday. Therefore, any deviation in the track to the right would increase the chance for impacts to that area. There are very favorable environmental conditions around the depression that should allow for strengthening over the next couple of days. The only inhibiting factor for quick strengthening in the short term appears to be the lack of a tight circulation and inner-core convection. Because of this, the NHC intensity forecast is on the lower end of the guidance through the first 24 hours, nearest to the LGEM, as it appears the HWRF/HMON are a bit too aggressive in intensifying the cyclone during that time. By 24 hours, it is assumed that the inner-core will become better established, and faster strengthening is indicated from 24 to 48 hours. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a dry, stable atmospheric environment, which should cause weakening. By this weekend, the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast beyond 24 hours is very near the IVCN consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 18.2N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 18.4N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 19.0N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 20.0N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 22.4N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 24.5N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-07 22:40:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 21(25) 11(36) X(36) X(36) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 9(10) 44(54) 16(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 13(13) 17(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 7(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 1(23) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-07 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 7 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 18.2, -107.9 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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