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Tropical Depression Kate Public Advisory Number 18
2021-09-01 16:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 ...STRUGGLING KATE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 52.3W ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 52.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Thursday before the cyclone dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next several days. Kate is expected to become a remnant low tomorrow, and dissipate entirely on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-09-01 16:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011454 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 52.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 52.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 51.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.9N 52.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.6N 53.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.1N 53.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.4N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 52.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Ida Public Advisory Number 25
2021-09-01 10:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 01 2021
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Tropical Depression Kate Graphics
2021-09-01 10:34:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 08:34:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 08:34:44 GMT
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-09-01 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010833 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 After the earlier convective hiatus, a concentrated area of thunderstorm activity containing numerous lightning strikes has developed over and to the east of the low-level center. In addition, upper-level outflow has been expanding to the west, an indication that the hostile shear conditions that have been plaguing the cyclone the past few days has finally waned. ASCAT data around 0000-0100Z showed peak winds near 25 kt; however, the recent sharp increase in deep convection along with a consensus Dvorak subjective intensity of T2.0/30 kt supports increasing the intensity to 30 kt. The 30-kt advisory intensity is also supported by UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates of T2.1/31 kt from ADT and 39 kt from SATCON. The initial motion estimate is 340/08 kt. Kate is moving north-northwestward between a small mid- to upper-level low to the south of the cyclone and deep-layer ridge located to the north and east of the system. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn back toward the north on Thursday as Kate rounds the western periphery of the ridge. By Friday, recurvature toward the north-northeast and northeast into the mid-latitude westerlies is forecast when the cyclone will be lifted out by an eastward-moving deep-layer trough currently crossing the western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and closely follows the tightly packed consensus track forecast models TVCA and NOAA-HCCA. A 0505 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass revealed that Kate's compact circulation had tightened up considerably since the earlier 0100 UTC ASCAT wind data, which shows a broad and elongated inner-core wind field. Also, Kate is currently passing between two small upper-level lows to the north and south of the cyclone, which is aiding the upper-level divergence across the system, albeit somewhat constrained due to the short distance of only about 300 nmi between the two upper lows. Given the locally enhanced outflow and the recent increase in deep convection, it s not out of the question that Kate could restrengthen back into a low-end tropical storm during the next 24 hours or so. However, the entrainment of dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent should prevent any significant or rapid restrengthening from occuring. by 48 hours, moderate northerly shear and even drier mid-level air should cause convection weaken, resulting in a gradual spin down of the circulation and eventual dissipation by 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to but slightly lower than the consensus intensity models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 25.7N 51.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 30.3N 53.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 31.9N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1800Z 33.5N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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