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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-02 07:48:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 the center of Three was located near 19.6, -92.0 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 2A
2020-06-02 07:48:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020547 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 100 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 ...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 92.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 92.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). This heading at a slower forward speed is expected to continue this morning. The depression is forecast to move west-southwestward or southward at a even slower forward speed this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche Tuesday night through Thursday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz, portions of Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is also expected to produce rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over parts of El Salvador and Honduras. Isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches are possible in the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, Chiapas and portions of Guatemala. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Tuesday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2020-06-02 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 02:37:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 02:37:00 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-06-02 04:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 020234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) FRONTERA MX 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 6(18) 2(20) 2(22) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-06-02 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 020234 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020 Satellite imagery, along with radar and surface data from Mexico, indicate that the depression has changed little in organization or strength since the previous advisory. There are a couple of small clusters of convection near the center, while the more concentrated convection is occurring in ragged bands well removed from the center. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the surface data and continuity from the previous advisory. The initial motion is now westward or 270/6. The evolution of this system during the next several days remains quite uncertain. The Canadian and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to make a slow counter-clockwise loop inside a larger gyre over Central America during the next 2-3 days, with the center moving near the coast of the Bay of Campeche. This would be followed by a more northward motion with some increase in forward speed as a mid-/upper-level trough develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the depression turning southward and making landfall over the coast of Mexico in the next 24-36 h, followed by dissipation. These two models subsequently develop a second low pressure area northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at around 120 h due to the interaction of the aforementioned gyre and trough. The new forecast track follows the previous forecast in showing TD-3 as being the system that moves northward across the Gulf. However, the new track brings the center closer to the coast of Mexico and is slower to move it northward than in the previous advisory. It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3. In the current track forecast scenario, slow strengthening should occur during the next 24-48 h while the cyclone moves over the warm water of the Bay of Campeche in an environment of light to moderate shear. After time, proximity to the Mexican coast should limit strengthening, and it is possible that the current forecast intensities could be generous. The more northward motion near the end of the forecast period is likely to be accompanied by an increase in southerly shear, so only modest intensification is forecast during that time. Overall, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast. An alternative intensity forecast scenario is that the cyclone moves far enough inland over Mexico to dissipate completely in less than 5 days as forecast by the GFS and ECMWF. Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and intensity forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either of the current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 19.6N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 19.6N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.2N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.6N 93.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 18.5N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 18.5N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 19.5N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 22.0N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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