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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-06-02 17:04:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 021504 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the depression and has found that the system is very close to tropical storm strength. Based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at 30 kt for now. Since the cyclone is over very warm waters with fairly low vertical shear, intensification to a tropical storm should occur today. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. The intensity forecast later in the period is dependent on how much shear the system will encounter over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this is somewhat uncertain. For now, the intensity forecast will remain conservative. The initial motion estimate is slowly westward, or 270/3 kt. The cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents over the Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days, with the system moving slowly within a broader gyre over eastern Mexico. Global models show the cyclone being trapped between two mid-level anticyclones until later in the week, when some increase in southerly flow should begin to carry the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline. The official track forecast closely follows the dynamical model consensus. At this time, both the track and intensity forecasts are of low confidence. However, for the next couple of days, the main threat from this slow-moving cyclone is from widespread heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Key Messages: 1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 19.5N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.5N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.0N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 18.8N 92.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 18.8N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 18.9N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 19.8N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 26.0N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2020-06-02 17:04:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 15:04:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 15:04:11 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-06-02 17:00:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 021500 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 1 9(10) 6(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) FRONTERA MX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-02 17:00:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 the center of Three was located near 19.5, -92.6 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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at3al032020
Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-06-02 17:00:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 021500 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 92.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 92.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N 92.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N 92.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.9N 91.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.8N 91.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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