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Tropical Depression Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-06-05 16:48:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 051448 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 1(24) X(24) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 17(28) 1(29) X(29) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 18(46) 6(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 1(30) X(30) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 4( 5) 17(22) 22(44) 10(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 22(25) 1(26) 1(27) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 24(28) X(28) 1(29) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 1(21) 1(22) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 1(16) 1(17) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 22 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) COZUMEL MX 34 9 2(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BELIZE CITY 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) KEESLER AB 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 10(25) 1(26) X(26) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 16
2020-06-05 16:47:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051447 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 ...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 89.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Indian Pass to Arepika, Florida, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Arepika Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Tropical storm conditions in the watch area in Mexico could occur through this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 89.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center will move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico this evening, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristobal is expected to regain tropical storm strength later today. Some additional strengthening is forecast thereafter. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka to Marco Island including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Grand Isle to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Indian Pass to Aripeka...2-4 ft Ocean Springs to Indian Pass including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible today within the Tropical Storm Watch area of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area of the northern Gulf coast beginning early Sunday. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast. Farther north across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected. Rises along smaller-order streams are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This degree of rainfall is expected to lead to flash flooding. Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Oaxaca...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 12 inches. Southern Guatemala, coastal portions of Chiapas, and El Salvador...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Rainfall across Southeast Mexico and northern Central America would continue the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-06-05 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 051446 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA AND FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE WATCH AREA IN MEXICO COULD OCCUR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 89.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 89.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 90.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 90.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.3N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N 90.9W...ON COAST MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.2N 91.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.7N 92.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 43.0N 89.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 89.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-05 14:37:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 12:37:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 12:37:00 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-05 14:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 the center of Cristobal was located near 18.8, -90.1 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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