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Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 15
2020-06-05 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050835 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 ...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 90.1W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a storm surge watch will likely be required for a portion of the area later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located inland near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 90.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today, and a general northward motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the Yucatan peninsula through the day today. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by tonight, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected while the depression is located over land. Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin once the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Gusty conditions are possible today along the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 1 to 3 inches. Southern Guatemala and coastal portions of Chiapas...Additional 8 to 12 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-06-05 10:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050835 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A STORM SURGE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 90.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 90.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...230NE 210SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.7N 90.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.6N 90.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.6N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.0N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 90.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-06-05 04:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050236 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 Cristobal is not very well organized at the moment as the center of the circulation remains inland over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico. Satellite images and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, indicate that the associated showers and thunderstorms lack banding features and the center is becoming less distinct. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but these winds are likely occurring over water well to the north and east of the center. The depression is moving slowly to the east as it nears the completion of a cyclonic loop around the Central American gyre that it has been embedded within. The models show the depression turning northward soon on the west side of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This should take Cristobal back over the southern Gulf of Mexico waters by Friday night, and across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. A fairly progressive ridge moving across the central U.S. could cause Cristobal to turn to the left slightly as it moves across the Gulf coast late this weekend and early next week. There remains a fair amount of spread in the model solutions, with the GFS being the fastest and farthest east and the ECMWF much slower and to the west. The NHC track forecast is between those scenarios and lies near the various consensus aids, which typically have the lowest errors. Cristobal is forecast to remain inland for another 12 to 24 hours, so little change in strength is anticipated during that time. After the system moves back over water, gradual strengthening seems likely until Cristobal reaches the northern Gulf coast. The intensification rate should be slow since Cristobal is a large system and will be moving into an environment of moderate wind shear and some dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update from earlier and lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Given the expected environmental conditions, the strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed from the center of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone. For more information on the potential impacts, see the Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal's center. Storm surge and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for a portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Friday. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.8N 90.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/1200Z 19.1N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 06/1200Z 22.5N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 07/0000Z 24.3N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/1200Z 26.3N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/0000Z 28.3N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 09/0000Z 32.6N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0000Z 37.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-05 04:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 02:36:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 02:36:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-06-05 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 050235 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 3(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 1(20) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 5(33) 1(34) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 1(16) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X 11(11) 3(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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