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Tropical Depression One Public Advisory Number 1
2020-05-16 22:38:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 162038 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 500 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 78.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast from north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * New River Inlet to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion should continue during the next day or so. After that time, a faster northeastward motion is expected. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move offshore, but parallel to, the coast of Florida tonight, and then move near or east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations and earlier aircraft reconnaissance data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by on Monday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through tonight. The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday night and Monday. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression One Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-05-16 22:38:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 162038 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012020 2100 UTC SAT MAY 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NEW RIVER INLET TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 78.6W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 78.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.7N 78.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.4N 77.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.0N 76.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.2N 74.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 37.1N 72.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 38.0N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 78.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression One-E Graphics
2020-04-26 16:40:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Apr 2020 14:40:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Apr 2020 14:40:09 GMT
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-04-26 16:38:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 261438 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 800 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020 Deep convection has been waning quickly in the southeastern quadrant since the previous advisory, and the system barely met Dvorak criteria for identifying it as a tropical cyclone at 1200 UTC. Given that the 0446 UTC ASCAT-A overpass mentioned in the previous discussion revealed a fairly sizable area of 28-30 kt winds in the northeastern quadrant, there might be one or two 30-kt vectors remaining despite the recent decline in the convective pattern, and thus the intensity has been held at 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/08 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is expected to gradually turn the cyclone toward the west-northwest later today and then westward by tonight, with a westward motion being maintained thereafter until the system dissipates by late Monday. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus track models Deep-layer dry air and cooler sea-surface temperatures, combined with strong westerly shear of 25-30 kt, should continue to erode what little bit of convection remains, causing the system to rapidly degenerate into a remnant low by this afternoon or evening. The low is then expected to dissipate by Monday night. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 15.7N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1200Z 16.8N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-04-26 16:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 261438 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 1500 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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