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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-04-25 22:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT APR 25 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 252031 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 2100 UTC SAT APR 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.9W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.9W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.2N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.1N 119.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.6N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 116.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-04-25 16:49:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 251448 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 800 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Overnight ASCAT data showed the disturbance over the central eastern Pacific basin has developed a well-defined center. Furthermore, convection associated with the low has increased in organization since yesterday. Advisories have therefore been initiated on Tropical Depression One-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based primarily on the aforementioned ASCAT data. This marks the earliest formation of a tropical cyclone in the eastern North Pacific basin since the satellite era began in 1966. The depression is not expected to stick around for long. Dry air in the surrounding environment appears to have already wrapped around much of the cyclone's circulation, and this is likely limiting its associated convection. This should also prevent the depression from strengthening much during the next 24 h, but it can not be ruled out that the system could briefly become a tropical storm later today. On Sunday, an increase in vertical wind shear and lower SSTs along the forecast track will contribute to the depression's demise, and it is expected to become a remnant low within about 36 h, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is northwest at 6 kt. The depression should continue on a general northwestward heading for another day or so until it becomes a remnant low. The remnants should then turn westward with the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates entirely in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 14.1N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 15.9N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.7N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 17.1N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Depression One-E Graphics

2020-04-25 16:47:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 25 Apr 2020 14:47:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 25 Apr 2020 14:47:26 GMT

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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2020-04-25 16:44:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT APR 25 2020 664 FOPZ11 KNHC 251444 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 1500 UTC SAT APR 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012020)

2020-04-25 16:44:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...EARLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Apr 25 the center of One-E was located near 14.1, -116.1 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary tropical depression tropical depression

 

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