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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-09-20 10:46:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200846 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 Ida remains a sheared tropical cyclone, but there are some indications that the mid-level and deep-layer shear is beginning to abate somewhat. A burst of deep convection has developed during the past few hours near the center and in the eastern quadrant, which so.me cloud tops near -80C. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based on consensus Dvorak current-intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, but this could be a little conservative based on earlier partial ASCAT overpass that contained slightly higher wind speeds in the eastern quadrant. The initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. Ida is expected to move west-northwestward and gradually slow down over the next several days, possibly even stalling by days 4 and 5. Steering currents are forecast to weaken considerably after 72 hours as a strong mid- to upper-level trough digs southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic and significantly erodes the ridge to the north of the cyclone. The global models are in good agreement on the developing synoptic flow scenario through day 3, but then diverge significantly after that with the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL models taking a deeper and stronger tropical cyclone more northward, whereas the GFS and HWRF models take a weaker and more shallow system westward. Given the uncertainty in the expected strength and vertical depth of Ida on days 3-5, the official forecast track lies down the middle of the guidance envelope, and is close to a blend of the consensus models TVCA and GFEX. The moderate to strong westerly vertical wind shear that Ida has been experiencing the past day or so is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to gradually subside and become less than 10 kt by 24 hours through 72 hours. With such a robust low-level circulation and the mid-level humidity values expected to be near 70 percent, convection should steadily increase and become better organized, producing at least some slow intensification through the next 48 hours. The leveling off of the intensity on days 3-5 is due to the uncertainty on whether or Ida moves beneath a small upper-level col region with weak winds as indicated by the ECMWF model, which would support more strengthening than what the official forecast is indicating. The NHC intensity forecast lies essentially midway between the two intensity extremes of the weaker GFS-HRWF and the stronger ECMWF-GFDL model solutions, and is supported by the intensity consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 16.7N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 17.5N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 18.8N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 19.8N 48.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 20.5N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 20.6N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 20.7N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 21.0N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2015-09-20 10:40:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 200840 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-20 10:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of IDA was located near 16.7, -43.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 8
2015-09-20 10:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200840 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 ...IDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 43.6W ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 43.6 West. Ida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest with a significant decrease in forward speed is expected on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 8
2015-09-20 10:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200839 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 43.6W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 15SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 43.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 43.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 45.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.8N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.8N 48.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.5N 48.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.6N 48.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 20.7N 48.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.0N 48.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 43.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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