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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2015-09-21 04:46:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 210246 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-09-21 04:44:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 210244 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 47.0W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 50SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 47.0W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 46.6W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 48.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.4N 48.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 48.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.6N 47.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 150SE 80SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 21.3N 47.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 23.2N 48.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-20 23:10:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2015 20:46:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2015 21:05:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-09-20 22:45:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 202045 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2015 Deep convection associated with Ida has decreased in coverage and become somewhat less organized today. The tropical cyclone remains sheared with a small band of convection located well east of the exposed center. Although Dvorak satellite T-numbers have decreased this afternoon, the initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is based on the earlier ASCAT data. Ida is moving northwestward or 305 degrees at 15 kt, a little faster than this morning. Despite the recent increase in forward speed, Ida is expected to slow down during the next 24 hours, and become nearly stationary by Tuesday when a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. Ida is then forecast to meander for a couple of days, before the ridge slides eastward and allows the tropical cyclone to resume a northwestward motion. The track guidance is in good agreement during the first few days of the forecast, but again becomes quite divergent by the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF, which moves Ida more eastward during the next few days, is along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile the UKMET and GFS show less of an eastern motion while the steering currents are weak, and take Ida more westward by day 5. The updated NHC track is between these scenarios and remains close to the multi-model consensus at 96 and 120 h. The westerly shear is still expected to decrease during the next day or so, but given the current organization of the system, Ida may not be able to take full advantage of the potentially more favorable upper-air pattern. Therefore, only a slight increase in intensity is predicted. After 48 hours, upper-level westerly winds associated with a trough are forecast to cause an increase in shear over the cyclone, which would likely cause weakening. The global models, however, generally deepen the cyclone between 72 and 120 h when Ida interacts with an upper-level trough. The official forecast shows little change in strength late in the period and lies between these differing possibilities. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 18.4N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 19.6N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 20.9N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 21.5N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 21.5N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 21.0N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 20.9N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 22.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-20 22:44:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of IDA was located near 18.4, -46.3 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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