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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-20 05:09:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2015 02:51:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2015 03:05:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-09-20 04:54:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200254 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 Ida is badly sheared tropical cyclone. The center, a well-defined swirl of low clouds, remains well removed from the nearest deep convection to east. This cloud pattern is consistent with UW-CIMSS shear analyses indicating about 20 kt of westerly vertical shear over the cyclone. A partial ASCAT overpass at 0016 UTC showed believable 37-kt wind well east of the center, and the initial intensity estimate is kept at 35 kt. Global models show strong westerly shear persisting over Ida for the next day or so. With so much shear likely, little to no intensification is expected to occur. A respite in the shear is forecast by 36 hours when a piece of an upper-level trough pinches off near the Greater Antilles and drifts westward, which may allow Ida an opportunity to intensify some. The lower-shear environment should not last long, however, since a large mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to dig southwestward into the central Atlantic on top of Ida in 2 to 3 days, with the ECMWF model showing the potential for a complex trough interaction to take place. Assuming that Ida survives, the environment looks less than ideal, with confluent and strong northwesterly winds aloft and the possibility of enhanced oceanic upwelling underneath the cyclone. Weakening is therefore considered the most likely scenario, and it would not be surprising to see Ida become a remnant low during this time frame. The new intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, closest to the HWRF model. An alternate but less likely possibility is that Ida could restrengthen due to baroclinic forcing as shown in the ECMWF solution. Ida has been moving faster and more westerly because of its more shallow nature, and the initial motion estimate is 290/13. A subtropical ridge migrating westward with the cyclone should keep it on a general west-northwestward track for another day or so. Steering currents are expected to collapse in a couple of days in response to the large mid- to upper-level trough amplifying southwestward in the vicinity of Ida. The lack of steering should cause Ida to come to a halt in about 3 days, with the track forecast after that dependent on the depth of the storm. A deeper cyclone would move faster toward the north or northeast as shown in the ECMWF, while a weaker and shallower cyclone would move westward ad depicted in the GFS. The official forecast is between these two extremes but leans more toward the GFS, given the current intensity forecast, and shows a slow northerly motion consistent with the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 15.8N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 16.7N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 17.8N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 18.9N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 19.8N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 19.9N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 19.9N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 20.3N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-20 04:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA POORLY ORGANIZED... ...MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of IDA was located near 15.8, -42.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 7
2015-09-20 04:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200252 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 ...IDA POORLY ORGANIZED... ...MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 42.4W ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 42.4 West. Ida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest with a significant decrease in forward speed is expected on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Sunday, but some strengthening possible on Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-09-20 04:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 200252 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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