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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-14 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140234 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Deep convection associated with the depression has decreased substantially since the last advisory, particularly during the last 3 hours. At 00Z, microwave, visible, and IR imagery showed the depression had a small but well-defined center with a small area of deep convection west of its center. Most satellite-based intensity estimates at that time were 35 kt, which would typically support naming the system as a tropical storm. Since that time, however, it appears that nearly all of the deep convection has dissipated and it is likely that the intensity estimates would be lower if they were valid now. The initial intensity is therefore conservatively held at 30 kt for this advisory, but it is certainly possible that the system is producing tropical-storm-force winds. The NHC forecast is largely unchanged. The cyclone is forecast to move generally westward for the next day or two, steered by a mid-level ridge to the north and low-level easterly flow. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but significant strengthening is not expected. An increase of southwesterly shear and cool SSTs should cause the cyclone to become a remnant low and then dissipate within about 3 days. The track and intensity guidance is all in good agreement and confidence in the NHC forecast is fairly high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.0N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-07-14 04:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 140233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062020)
2020-07-14 04:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HEADING WEST FAR FROM LAND... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 the center of Six-E was located near 17.0, -114.4 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 2
2020-07-14 04:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HEADING WEST FAR FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 114.4W ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 114.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system could become a tropical storm at any time during the next day or two, but substantial strengthening is not expected. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-14 04:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020 0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.4W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.4W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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