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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2021-08-12 04:45:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120245 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)

2021-08-12 04:45:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KEVIN WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY MORNING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 the center of Kevin was located near 22.0, -118.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 19

2021-08-12 04:45:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120245 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...KEVIN WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 118.2W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 118.2 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a general northwest or west-northwest motion should continue until dissipation in a few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Kevin is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tomorrow morning and then become a remnant low by Friday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells should diminish along the coast by late Thursday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart

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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-08-12 04:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 120243 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.2W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 180SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 118.2W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.1N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

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