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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-08-11 16:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111434 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 390SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 116.8W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.0N 118.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 50SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 120.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 122.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.6N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-11 10:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 08:38:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Aug 2021 09:29:12 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-11 10:36:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN WEAKENS SOME MORE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 the center of Kevin was located near 19.8, -116.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-11 05:25:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110325 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 15...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Corrected direction of motion in the second paragraph. Tracking the center of Kevin this evening has been a challenge, as multiple low-level swirls appear to be rotating cyclonically around a broader mean circulation. The deeper convection remains mostly south of the estimated circulation center, though some cooler cloud tops did attempt to build northward, following a mesovortex seen on visible satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 0000 UTC were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was hovering between these values at 42 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates given the earlier ASCAT data. The initial motion is estimated at 320/7 kt, attempting to follow the mean center that has several mesovorticies rotating around. A general northwest to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue over the next several days as the large cyclone is steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its northeast. The latest track guidance was a bit more poleward compared to the previous cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit more poleward in the short term, choosing to remain close to the track guidance consensus. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear continues to keep Kevin's deepest convection downshear in the southern semicircle of the large circulation envelope. Over the next 24 hours, Kevin will also be crossing a sharp sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient, with sub 26 C SSTs not far away to the north. As the cyclone moves over these progressively cooler waters, gradual weakening should commence. Simulated IR brightness temperature data from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kevin will lose its remaining organized convection by 48-60 hours, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows Kevin becoming a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 19.5N 115.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.7N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 23.0N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 24.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 25.1N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 26.3N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 28.4N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-11 04:52:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY ORGANIZED KEVIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 the center of Kevin was located near 19.5, -115.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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