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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-11 22:55:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112054 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 Satellite imagery this afternoon shows that Kevin continues to have a large circulation, but that the deep convection is well-removed from the tropical storm's center. A blend of the Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB suggest that the system remains with an intensity of 40 kt, which is also supported by 1723Z SATCON estimate of 38 kt. Kevin's short-term movement has been a bit more westward, perhaps due to pulling by the remaining deep convection restricted to its southwestern quadrant. The longer-term initial motion is estimated as 290 degrees at 9 kt. The tropical storm is primarily being steered along the southwestern periphery of a deep tropospheric ridge. However, as the deep convection ceases completely in a day or two, the system will increasingly be steered by the lower tropospheric flow. A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is anticipated until dissipation. The official track forecast is based upon the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), which is midway between the GFS and ECMWF global model solutions but substantially faster than the mesoscale hurricane model output. This new forecast is slightly westward of the previous advisory, due to the somewhat more westward position at the initial time. The tropical storm has already moved across the 26C SST isotherm and is moving toward even cooler water, drier air, and a more stable atmosphere. Additionally, Kevin is being affected by moderate NE tropospheric vertical wind shear. The large system should gradually weaken under these increasingly hostile conditions and it's likely that Kevin will become a remnant low by late Thursday. The official intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN statistical scheme and is nearly the same as the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 21.1N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.2N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.4N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.7N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1800Z 26.2N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0600Z 27.9N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 29.5N 129.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-08-11 22:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 112052 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-11 22:52:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN CONTINUES AS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE THURSDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 the center of Kevin was located near 21.1, -117.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 18
2021-08-11 22:52:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 112052 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 ...KEVIN CONTINUES AS A LARGE TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 117.8W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 117.8 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). The tropical storm should continue toward the west-northwest or northwest at a slightly faster forward speed until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Kevin is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Thursday morning and then a remnant low by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells should diminish along the coast by late Thursday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-11 22:51:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 112050 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 117.8W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 210SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 117.8W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.2N 119.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 60SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.4N 121.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.7N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.2N 126.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.9N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.5N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 117.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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