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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-09-05 10:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050834 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 300 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015 South-southwesterly shear around 30 kt has displaced all remaining deep convection northeastward over the central Baja California peninsula, more than 120 n mi northeast of the presumed low-level center. A recent ASCAT pass sampled the western half of the circulation and showed no tropical storm force winds. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt as a blend of the latest Dvorak numbers, with the assumption that tropical storm force winds might still be occurring within the eastern side of the circulation, which wasn't sampled by the scatterometer. Strong shear will continue advecting the leftover convection away from the low-level circulation, and barring redevelopment of new convection, Kevin will likely become a remnant low later today. Winds are forecast to quickly decrease, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Kevin is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, as shown by the latest global model fields. The center has been difficult to locate, but microwave images suggest that it has been tugged northeastward by the convection. The initial motion is 010/6 kt, but now that Kevin is becoming a shallow cyclone, it should be steered slowly northwestward and then westward by 36 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is a little east of the previous one, only because of the adjusted initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 23.0N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 23.6N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 24.0N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 24.1N 116.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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