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Tropical Storm COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-06-24 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 242032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 2100 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 4 20 38 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 2 22 44 46 TROPICAL STORM 67 32 26 42 62 35 16 HURRICANE 33 67 73 56 12 2 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 31 53 47 38 11 2 X HUR CAT 2 1 11 17 12 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 3 7 5 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 70KT 75KT 70KT 50KT 35KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 27(30) 12(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X 4( 4) 40(44) 31(75) 3(78) X(78) X(78) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 18(18) 25(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Advisory Number 6
2013-06-24 22:31:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 242031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 2100 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 107.1W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 300SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 107.1W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 108.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 113.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm COSME Graphics
2013-06-24 17:07:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jun 2013 14:42:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jun 2013 15:03:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-06-24 16:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241441 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013 A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF COSME BEGAN JUST AFTER 0600 UTC AND HAS PERSISTED SINCE THAT TIME. SOME NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...YET TAFB AND SAB BOTH PROVIDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT. THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS EVEN HIGHER AT 50 KT. EITHER WAY...COSME IS STRENGTHENING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME EASIER TO LOCATE BASED ON A 1241 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS AND THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO JUMP TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...BUT SMOOTHING THE TRACK YIELDS A 12-HOUR MOTION OF 315/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN 2-3 DAYS...WHICH WILL TEND TO STEER COSME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK MODELS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AROUND COSME SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS PERIOD ALSO HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATER WARMER THAN 26C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND THEY ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST SHOWN BY THE LGEM. WEAKENING SHOULD STILL BEGIN BY 72 HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONE LIKELY DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 105.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 16.0N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.7N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 20.0N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-06-24 16:41:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 1500 UTC MON JUN 24 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 105.8W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 240SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 105.8W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 105.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.7N 112.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 114.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 20.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 105.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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