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Summary for Tropical Storm COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-26 22:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME QUICKLY WEAKENING OVER COLD PACIFIC WATERS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 the center of COSME was located near 19.3, -116.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm COSME Public Advisory Number 14
2013-06-26 22:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 262032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 ...COSME QUICKLY WEAKENING OVER COLD PACIFIC WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 116.5W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ACAPULCO TO LOS MOCHIS...AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Advisory Number 14
2013-06-26 22:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 262031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 2100 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.5W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 360SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.5W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.9N 118.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.6N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.9N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.0N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm COSME Graphics
2013-06-26 17:07:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2013 14:48:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2013 15:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-06-26 16:47:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261447 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 COSME HAS BEGUN ITS WEAKENING PHASE...AS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER CLOSED. BASED UPON THE INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...THE TAFB AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 3.0/4.0...WHILE THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INDICATES T3.7 OR 55-60 KT. THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE 60 KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. A 0937Z AMSU SATELLITE PASS PROVIDED GUIDANCE ON THE TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII...WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON THE CIRA SIZE ANALYSIS. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU PASS ALONG WITH AN 1106Z SSMI PASS ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION OF COSME. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT...DUE TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. COSME SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE BENDING WESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...IN PART DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. THE TRACK PREDICTION IS LIKEWISE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE COSME SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECAY DUE TO TRAVERSING COLD WATER. EVEN THOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY QUITE VIGOROUS...WHEN COSME REACHES 22C SSTS TOMORROW THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO COLLAPSE...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS A BIT BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.9N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 20.8N 120.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 21.8N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z 22.3N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 22.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z 22.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 22.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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