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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 3

2017-10-05 04:47:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 050247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 82.7W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 82.7W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 82.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.5N 83.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.1N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.6N 84.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 86.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.5N 88.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 30.5N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 36.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 82.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics

2017-10-05 01:39:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 23:39:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 21:25:19 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen (AT1/AL162017)

2017-10-05 01:38:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Sixteen was located near 12.6, -82.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 2A

2017-10-05 01:38:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 042338 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 82.6W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM W OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. A hurricane watch could be issued for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 82.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. On the forecast track, the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into Honduras late Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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